<br><font size=2 face="sans-serif">Impossible. Two colliding planes had to be sequintial numbers. Thats a fact. I have years of research data to back it up. Unfortunately I cannot reveal any of this data, at risk of disclosing my resources....just beleive me, now lets go to war.....<br>
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Gray Fowler<br>
Principal Chemical Engineer<br>
Composites Engineering</font>
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<td><font size=1 face="sans-serif"><b>Bill Glaze <billglaze@triad.rr.com></b></font>
<br><font size=1 face="sans-serif">Sent by: discussion-request@nsrca.org</font>
<p><font size=1 face="sans-serif">02/03/2003 06:08 PM</font>
<br><font size=1 face="sans-serif">Please respond to discussion</font>
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<br><font size=1 face="sans-serif"> To: discussion@nsrca.org</font>
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<br><font size=1 face="sans-serif"> Subject: Re: Avoidance Rule</font></table>
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<br><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">Gray: <br>
What happens if the plane with a number which is up, hits one whose number has not yet come?<G> <br>
Bill Glaze </font>
<p><font size=3 face="Times New Roman">Gray E Fowler wrote: </font>
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Yeah...thats what I meant. I have seen a lot more planes go down due to other problems-like forgeting to put on wing bolts, radio problems etc. I bet battery/switch (electrical) is way higher than mid airs. My only point, bad statistics and all is that if you put in special rules for everything that could happen to protect a plane it would bog down a contest that already seems to move at a snails pace in 100F weather.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<p><font size=2 face="sans-serif">As far as losing planes goes it all comes down to the fact that every plane has a NUMBER and when that number is called that plane goes down.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=2 face="sans-serif"><br>
It is good to be in the kit business.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> <br>
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<p><font size=2 face="sans-serif">Gray Fowler</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=2 face="sans-serif"><br>
Principal Chemical Engineer</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=2 face="sans-serif"><br>
Composites Engineering</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> <br>
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<td width=50%><font size=1 face="sans-serif"><b>"Keith Black" <tkeithb@attbi.com></b></font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=1 face="sans-serif"><br>
Sent by: discussion-request@nsrca.org</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<p><font size=1 face="sans-serif">02/01/2003 01:08 AM</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=1 face="sans-serif"><br>
Please respond to discussion</font>
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To: <discussion@nsrca.org></font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=1 face="sans-serif"><br>
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Subject: Re: Avoidance Rule</font></table>
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<p><font size=2 face="Arial">Gray, your number of 0.08% is your probability of having a mid-air "per flight".</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<p><font size=2 face="Arial">Another way to look at this is:</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<p><font size=2 face="Arial">6 planes involved in a mid-airs in 4 years</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=2 face="Arial"><br>
That's 1.5 planes per year lost.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=2 face="Arial"><br>
So 1.5 out of 25 pilots loose a plane each year</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=2 face="Arial"><br>
That's a 6% chance of loosing a plane during a year of flying.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<p><font size=2 face="Arial">My guess is that if you had a 6% chance of having an auto accident per year you'd never get insurance!</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<p><font size=2 face="Arial">In other words, I need to get this new Aries finished so I can get my next one started ;-)</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<p><font size=2 face="Arial">Keith</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> <br>
----- Original Message ----- <b><br>
From:</b> </font><a href=mailto:gfowler@raytheon.com><font size=3 color=blue face="Times New Roman"><u>Gray E Fowler</u></font></a><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> <b><br>
To:</b> </font><a href=mailto:discussion@nsrca.org><font size=3 color=blue face="Times New Roman"><u>discussion@nsrca.org</u></font></a><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> <b><br>
Sent:</b> Friday, January 31, 2003 8:24 AM <b><br>
Subject:</b> RE: Avoidance Rule <br>
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<p><font size=2 face="sans-serif">I understand this discussion if it made mid-airs less frequent, but look at the numbers first prior to really putting something in that slows down a contest or adds other inconvenience.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=2 face="sans-serif"><br>
This is my personal experience. I have seen 3 mid airs at a contest in 4 years. On the AVERAGE we have 25 flyers at 6 rounds per contest, 6 contests per year. That is 3600 flights/3 mid airs or 0.08%.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<p><font size=2 face="sans-serif">No one likes to lose a plane ( happened to me during practice-it was Lance's fault and that makes me feel better) but no one likes to drive to a contest and not get a maximum of flights in either. Calling out avoidance and bailing just does not seem to work with me, as Lance mentioned if you are gonna hit it will be a big surprize-no one can call you off in time. The reality probably is that at an I MAC event if someone bailed they were close but not really going to hit. The argument about lots more money does not work either because of the time required to build a plane outweighs the cost(for most). Also if money was a legitimate argument then since pattern planes only cost $2-3K instead of $5-6K IMAC then we could accept the risk. Pattern contests in D6 always try to run rapid and smooth where as the IMAC guys are allowed to land and re-fuel after round 1-still on the clock, then go up for round 2. They just do not seem to be as concerned!!
about packing in the flights. The! "weather" reason is strange too as if lightning or something appear the CD would shut down (except Gene-he most likely would yell "stay out there you weenie.....you need to learn to fly in all conditions")-not the call of the flyer. If it got "dangerously windy" or something else-geeez its a hobby....dump the round and save your stinkin' plane-once again if the flyer could make this call it could wreak havoc and even spur on momentum to increase the weight limit or some other sensitive rule-issue(thats a dry joke!).</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<p><font size=2 face="sans-serif">Consider yourself a soldier-Take the Patton attitude, some of you are gonna die, ( or the Full Metal Jacket attitude "better you than me") the rest of us live patternly happily after ever.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<p><font size=2 face="sans-serif">And NO I do not think I am Karma destined for a mid-air. Statistically speaking I a clear because I already had my mid-air (except for the reality that the statistical facts say my chances for a midair are the same every time I go up at a contest). So I hope-better you than me.</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font>
<p><font size=2 face="sans-serif">Have a nice weekend</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> <br>
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<p><font size=2 face="sans-serif">Gray Fowler</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=2 face="sans-serif"><br>
Principal Chemical Engineer</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> </font><font size=2 face="sans-serif"><br>
Composites Engineering</font><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"> <br>
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