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<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>No matter what the stats show seeing three mid-airs
within 4 contests last year is three to many for all of us.
</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2> </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2> Del K.
Rykert<BR> AMA - 8928 <BR> NSRCA
- 473<BR> Kb2joi - General </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=tkeithb@attbi.com href="mailto:tkeithb@attbi.com">Keith Black</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=discussion@nsrca.org
href="mailto:discussion@nsrca.org">discussion@nsrca.org</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 31, 2003 11:08
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Avoidance Rule</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Gray, your number of 0.08% is your
probability of having a mid-air "per flight". </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Another way to look at this is:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>6 planes involved in a mid-airs in 4
years</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That's 1.5 planes per year lost.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>So 1.5 out of 25 pilots loose a plane each
year</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That's a 6% chance of loosing a plane during a
year of flying.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>My guess is that if you had a 6% chance of having
an auto accident per year you'd never get insurance!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>In other words, I need to get this new Aries
finished so I can get my next one started ;-)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Keith</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
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<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=gfowler@raytheon.com href="mailto:gfowler@raytheon.com">Gray E
Fowler</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=discussion@nsrca.org
href="mailto:discussion@nsrca.org">discussion@nsrca.org</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 31, 2003 8:24
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: Avoidance Rule</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=2>I understand this discussion
if it made mid-airs less frequent, but look at the numbers first prior to
really putting something in that slows down a contest or adds other
inconvenience.</FONT> <BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=2>This is my personal
experience. I have seen 3 mid airs at a contest in 4 years. On the AVERAGE
we have 25 flyers at 6 rounds per contest, 6 contests per year. That is 3600
flights/3 mid airs or 0.08%.</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=2>No
one likes to lose a plane ( happened to me during practice-it was Lance's
fault and that makes me feel better) but no one likes to drive to a contest
and not get a maximum of flights in either. Calling out avoidance and
bailing just does not seem to work with me, as Lance mentioned if you are
gonna hit it will be a big surprize-no one can call you off in time. The
reality probably is that at an I MAC event if someone bailed they were close
but not really going to hit. The argument about lots more money does not
work either because of the time required to build a plane outweighs the
cost(for most). Also if money was a legitimate argument then since pattern
planes only cost $2-3K instead of $5-6K IMAC then we could accept the risk.
Pattern contests in D6 always try to run rapid and smooth where as the IMAC
guys are allowed to land and re-fuel after round 1-still on the clock, then
go up for round 2. They just do not seem to be as concerned! about packing
in the flights. The "weather" reason is strange too as if lightning or
something appear the CD would shut down (except Gene-he most likely would
yell "stay out there you weenie.....you need to learn to fly in all
conditions")-not the call of the flyer. If it got "dangerously windy" or
something else-geeez its a hobby....dump the round and save your stinkin'
plane-once again if the flyer could make this call it could wreak havoc and
even spur on momentum to increase the weight limit or some other sensitive
rule-issue(thats a dry joke!).</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=sans-serif
size=2>Consider yourself a soldier-Take the Patton attitude, some of you are
gonna die, ( or the Full Metal Jacket attitude "better you than me") the
rest of us live patternly happily after ever.</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT
face=sans-serif size=2>And NO I do not think I am Karma destined for a
mid-air. Statistically speaking I a clear because I already had my mid-air
(except for the reality that the statistical facts say my chances for a
midair are the same every time I go up at a contest). So I hope-better you
than me.</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=2>Have a nice
weekend</FONT> <BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=2><BR><BR><BR><BR>Gray
Fowler<BR>Principal Chemical Engineer<BR>Composites
Engineering</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>