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<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>Gray.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2> </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2> I was referring to the three mid
airs in our circuit last year. </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2> </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>
Del</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=gfowler@raytheon.com href="mailto:gfowler@raytheon.com">Gray E
Fowler</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=discussion@nsrca.org
href="mailto:discussion@nsrca.org">discussion@nsrca.org</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, February 10, 2003 3:17
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Avoidance Rule</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=2>Del</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT
face=sans-serif size=2>That was 3 mids air in 4 years<BR><BR><BR><BR>Gray
Fowler<BR>Principal Chemical Engineer<BR>Composites Engineering</FONT>
<BR><BR><BR>
<TABLE width="100%">
<TBODY>
<TR vAlign=top>
<TD>
<TD><FONT face=sans-serif size=1><B>"Del Rykert" <<A
href="mailto:drykert@rochester.rr.com">drykert@rochester.rr.com</A>></B></FONT>
<BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>Sent by: <A
href="mailto:discussion-request@nsrca.org">discussion-request@nsrca.org</A></FONT>
<P><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>02/10/2003 06:05 PM</FONT> <BR><FONT
face=sans-serif size=1>Please respond to discussion</FONT> <BR></P>
<TD><FONT face=Arial size=1> </FONT><BR><FONT
face=sans-serif size=1> To:
<<A
href="mailto:discussion@nsrca.org">discussion@nsrca.org</A>></FONT>
<BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=1> cc:
</FONT> <BR><FONT face=sans-serif size=1>
Subject: Re: Avoidance
Rule</FONT></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR><BR><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=2><B>No matter what the stats show seeing three mid-airs
within 4 contests last year is three to many for all of us.
</B></FONT><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue
size=2><B> </B></FONT> <BR><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue
size=2><B> Del K. Rykert<BR> AMA - 8928
<BR> NSRCA - 473<BR> Kb2joi - General
</B></FONT><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3> </FONT>
<BR><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3> </FONT> <BR><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3>----- Original Message -----
</FONT><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3><B>From:</B>
</FONT><A href="mailto:tkeithb@attbi.com"><FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3><U>Keith Black</U></FONT></A><FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3> </FONT><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue
size=3><B>To:</B> </FONT><A href="mailto:discussion@nsrca.org"><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue
size=3><U>discussion@nsrca.org</U></FONT></A><FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3> </FONT><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue
size=3><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 31, 2003 11:08 PM</FONT> <BR><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3><B>Subject:</B> Re: Avoidance
Rule</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=Arial color=blue size=2>Gray, your number of
0.08% is your probability of having a mid-air "per flight". </FONT><BR><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3> </FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial
color=blue size=2>Another way to look at this is:</FONT> <BR><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3> </FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial
color=blue size=2>6 planes involved in a mid-airs in 4 years</FONT> <BR><FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=2>That's 1.5 planes per year lost.</FONT> <BR><FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=2>So 1.5 out of 25 pilots loose a plane each
year</FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial color=blue size=2>That's a 6% chance of
loosing a plane during a year of flying.</FONT> <BR><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3> </FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial
color=blue size=2>My guess is that if you had a 6% chance of having an auto
accident per year you'd never get insurance!</FONT> <BR><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3> </FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial
color=blue size=2>In other words, I need to get this new Aries finished so I
can get my next one started ;-)</FONT> <BR><FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3> </FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial color=blue
size=2>Keith</FONT> <BR><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3>-----
Original Message ----- </FONT><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue
size=3><B>From:</B> </FONT><A href="mailto:gfowler@raytheon.com"><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3><U>Gray E Fowler</U></FONT></A><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3> </FONT><BR><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3><B>To:</B> </FONT><A
href="mailto:discussion@nsrca.org"><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue
size=3><U>discussion@nsrca.org</U></FONT></A><FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3> </FONT><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue
size=3><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 31, 2003 8:24 AM</FONT> <BR><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3><B>Subject:</B> RE: Avoidance
Rule</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=sans-serif color=blue size=2><BR>I understand
this discussion if it made mid-airs less frequent, but look at the numbers
first prior to really putting something in that slows down a contest or adds
other inconvenience.</FONT><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3>
</FONT><FONT face=sans-serif color=blue size=2><BR>This is my personal
experience. I have seen 3 mid airs at a contest in 4 years. On the AVERAGE we
have 25 flyers at 6 rounds per contest, 6 contests per year. That is 3600
flights/3 mid airs or 0.08%.</FONT><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue
size=3> <BR></FONT><FONT face=sans-serif color=blue size=2><BR>No one likes to
lose a plane ( happened to me during practice-it was Lance's fault and that
makes me feel better) but no one likes to drive to a contest and not get a
maximum of flights in either. Calling out avoidance and bailing just does not
seem to work with me, as Lance mentioned if you are gonna hit it will be a big
surprize-no one can call you off in time. The reality probably is that at an I
MAC event if someone bailed they were close but not really going to hit. The
argument about lots more money does not work either because of the time
required to build a plane outweighs the cost(for most). Also if money was a
legitimate argument then since pattern planes only cost $2-3K instead of $5-6K
IMAC then we could accept the risk. Pattern contests in D6 always try to run
rapid and smooth where as the IMAC guys are allowed to land and re-fuel after
round 1-still on the clock, then go up for round 2. They just do not seem to
be as concerned! about packing in the flights. The! "weather" reason is
strange too as if lightning or something appear the CD would shut down (except
Gene-he most likely would yell "stay out there you weenie.....you need to
learn to fly in all conditions")-not the call of the flyer. If it got
"dangerously windy" or something else-geeez its a hobby....dump the round and
save your stinkin' plane-once again if the flyer could make this call it could
wreak havoc and even spur on momentum to increase the weight limit or some
other sensitive rule-issue(thats a dry joke!).</FONT><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3> <BR></FONT><FONT face=sans-serif
color=blue size=2><BR>Consider yourself a soldier-Take the Patton attitude,
some of you are gonna die, ( or the Full Metal Jacket attitude "better you
than me") the rest of us live patternly happily after ever.</FONT><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3> <BR></FONT><FONT face=sans-serif
color=blue size=2><BR>And NO I do not think I am Karma destined for a mid-air.
Statistically speaking I a clear because I already had my mid-air (except for
the reality that the statistical facts say my chances for a midair are the
same every time I go up at a contest). So I hope-better you than
me.</FONT><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3> <BR></FONT><FONT
face=sans-serif color=blue size=2><BR>Have a nice weekend</FONT><FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=blue size=3> </FONT><FONT face=sans-serif
color=blue size=2><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>Gray Fowler<BR>Principal Chemical
Engineer<BR>Composites Engineering</FONT> <BR><BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>