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<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=747400221-02082003><SPAN
class=149460603-03082003>Oops, correction: The odds of you having a
mid-air at a pattern contest may be 1 in 56, not 1 in 560. The odds of any
contestant of having a mid-air is 10 in 56, given the assumption that there
are 56 pattern contests each year in North America, and an average of
10 mid-airs per year. </SPAN></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT size=2><SPAN
class=747400221-02082003>A more interesting question to me is, how offten do
pattern planes collide at contests? I can control mid-airs outside of
contests, but we are all subject to the odds of a mid air if
we participate in a contest. Let's say there are 10
mid-airs out of all the 8 NSRCA districts each year. </SPAN><SPAN
class=747400221-02082003> And lets say there are 7 contests per
district on average. Then that is 56 contests. Then the odds of
having one mid air in a contest is 1 in 56. Now if there are 20
pilots average per contest, then your chance of mid-air is 1/(56 * 10) = one
chance in 560 contest attendances (I think).<SPAN
class=149460603-03082003> </SPAN></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
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